Quantifying a Financially Sustainable Strategy of Public Transport: Private Capital Investment Considering Passenger Value

Releaving traffic congestion by developing public transport as an alternative mode of travel is a common practice all over the world. However, the increasing public transport subsidies have created a financial burden for governments. Encouragingly, private capital supplies an opportunity for public transport in sustainable finance. Previous research mainly focuses on qualitative analysis and money-for-value (MFV) analysis. In this paper, a new investment model is proposed based on the concept ‘passenger value’, and a bi-level programming model (BLPM) is constructed as a quantitative analysis tool. The upper target of BLPM is the total surplus (including the value of time (VOT) of passengers) of the public transport system and the upper constraint is the ticket price. The lower target of BLPM is passenger’s surplus, the lower constraints are service capability and the lowest return rate of the private sector. The public transport of Jinan City, China is taken as a case to quantify the impacts of private capital investment in public transport. Results show that the proposed investment model considering passenger value is superior to the traditional one, and effective private capital investment could increase the total societal benefit of the transportation system. The proposed investment strategy satisfies economic viability and is a financially sustainability strategy. Additionally, travelers should be encouraged to use public transport through improving the service quality and passenger returns. Only in this way can the success rate of the private sector investment in public transport be improved efficiently.